APC HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN

By Israel Ekene Ohia
Thank God Almighty, per chance Nigerians may at
last get rid of the PDP in 2015. Yes, we all want the
ravaging PDP out of power and out of our lives.
You do not need to talk to thousands of Nigerians

to realize this fact; just meet a few people in the
streets of any part of the country and the same
narrative will inevitably keep coming back at you –
Nigerians today want the PDP out of power even
more than they had wanted the military out in
1999.
The reason is simple; the PDP has wrecked the
country in its 13 years in office even more than the
military did in its 29 years in power – whether it is
on our national unity, politics, economy, corruption,
insecurity, infrastructure, crime, dishonesty in
leadership, theft, looting of public funds, or any
other aspect of our national life, the PDP has done
worse than the military. So, Nigerians
understandably want them out.
But wanting the PDP out will not get the PDP out
unless and until concrete and determined steps are
taken. I see in the formation of the All Progressive
Congress (APC) such determined step. However,
while Nigerians are ever ready to support the mega
party achieve this noble objective, the APC itself
must on its own take the necessary measures if it
really means to win fair and square in the
presidential elections of 2015. Naturally, the best
step the APC will take to win the election is by
fielding in candidates with mass public support. To
this end, it is in my considered opinion that fielding
in of General Mohammad Buhari (Rtd) and Sen.
Bola Tinubu as its Presidential and Vice
Presidential candidates respectively is the surest
way of guaranteeing an electoral victory. The
political calculation is simple, and the electoral
mathematics is easy; Buhari, more than any
politician in the North, commands the support of
the Northern populace. Therefore, fielding in any
other candidate than Buhari will turn off the North
against the party in the same way as how CPC’s
fielding in of a South-Westerner other than Tinubu
as its Vice Presidential candidate in the 2011
presidential election turned off the zone against the
CPC; because Tinubu, more than any politician
south of the Niger commands the support of the
Southwest zone. Therefore, it is common sense
that if APC now fields in Buhari and Tinubu in
2015, victory of the party is assured.
Mathematically, the electoral forte of the two
geopolitical zones of Northwest and Southwest
alone put together constitute 46.3% of the national
electoral strength, based on the 2010 voter’s
registration. Driving from the voting pattern of
these zones over the years, once APC puts in the
above joint presidential ticket, PDP has not a
chance in the presidential election come what may?
The South-west zone currently has a total number
of 14,296,163 registered voters, which represents
19.44% of the total number of voters nationwide.
In terms of national electoral strength, the zone is
number 2. Taking into account the electoral
behavior of the South-west since independence, the
zone has proven itself, without exception, of
incapable of voting anyone other than its own. In
the 1st Republic it voted mainly Action Group in
favour of Chief Obafemi Awolowo with about 69%
voters’ turnout. In the 2ndRepublic, it voted 78.75%
of its total votes cast for UPN in favour of Chief
Awolowo, with 70% voters’ turnout. In the June 12,
1993presidential election, the pattern was repeated
more or less the same, except that the total
percentage of SDP’s votes in favour of Chief MKO
Abiola rose up to 84.5% in the zone. In the 1999
presidential election, mainly because the only two
candidates for the presidency were both from the
South-west, the zone’s voters’ turnout was
abysmally low (48.09%) with about 68% of the
votes cast to ANPP in favour of Chief Olu Falaye.
2003 also recorded poor voters’ turnout with 71%
of votes cast to Obasanjo’s PDP. In 2011 the
South west voted PDP when a functional alliance
with the North failed to field in Sen. Tinubu.
Like the South-west, the electoral pattern of the
North-west too has shown, without exception, that
it does not elect anyone other than its own. This
trend includes the much celebrated June 12
presidential election where Chief Abiola was given
an average votes cast of 42.9% by the zone. Even
this score was unusually high, and can be
attributed to the personality profile of Chief Abiola,
including his faith. For the record, it should be
pointed out that the North-west zone always led
the nation in terms of number of registered voters.
For the 2011 elections, the zone has 19,803,689,
representing 26.93% of the national electoral
strength, the highest in the country.
With a total of 10,749,059 voters in the 2011 polls,
representing 14.62% of the national voters, the
North-east zone is the 4th in terms of electoral
strength in the country. Most often it votes its own,
but where absent it goes with the North-west.
Although ethnically heterogeneous, it largely shares
common history, faith and cultural values with the
North-west. These may have accounted for the
often common political stand between the two
zones. On this score, we can confidently assert that
the zone will go not less than 65% for Gen. Buhari,
as the 2003, 2007 and 2011 polls showed.
Added to the fact that Buhari was once the
governor of the entire zone, there is a sentimental
political attachment to the man that somehow
remains through the years. If every vote will count,
as the nation expects it to count in 2015, then APC
with Buhari as its presidential candidate is very
much at home in the zone. Also, there will very
high voter turnout.
The North-central has 11,627,490 voters
representing 15.81% of the total electoral strength
of the country. It is the home of about 70% of what
is generically term as “Northern Minorities”. But
about 50% of the populace is historically and
politically affiliated to the ‘Northern Caliphate
Establishment’; and over the years this affiliation
has translated into electoral votes to the
establishment. Barring any other consideration, this
factor is also likely to reflect in the 2015
presidential election in favour of the APC. Likewise,
the fielding in of Sen. Tinubu as the Vice
Presidential candidate will guarantee the votes of
the Southwest to the new party. How therefore can
PDP, with Jonathan and Namadi Sambo as its
flag-bearers, win the election? Even if Sambo, with
no electoral value to his party, as the 2011 general
elections had shown, has been dropped as the
PDP’s Vice Presidential candidate, it would still not
help the party’s electoral fortune.
On the other hand, the fielding in of Buhari/Tinubu
by the APC as its candidates will force PDP to
seriously consider dropping Jonathan and Sambo
as its Presidential nominees in 2015 so as to bring
in a Northerner and South Easterner as it’s
Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates
respectively in an effort to split the Northern votes
and guarantee the Southeast votes to the party.
But even this plausible strategy cannot help the
PDP win the election in the sense that the
Southeast has the least electoral strength in the
county, with a total of less than 8,899, 438, which
cannot upturn the votes of the Southwest. Besides,
on the other hand, the Politics of fielding in or
dropping off President Jonathan and Vice President
as its Presidential nominees will further breakdown
the PDP and weaken it to the point it cannot win
the election, whichever way its ticket goes. The
power tussle will be such that it will become
apparent to the nation that the PDP is finished, and
this perception will be irreversible and will
determine the outcome of the general election.
On the other hand, the fielding of General Buhari as
the Presidential candidate will be of tremendous
advantage to the APC on one fundamental front;
unarguably, Nigerians are all agreed that the
foremost problem of the country is dishonest
leadership. Nigerians are also agreed, arguably,
that Buhari is the most honest politician in the
country, judging from his past leadership
antecedents. If therefore Nigerians want to resolve
the nation’s fundamental problem, then fielding in
of Buhari is the logical solution; it will be like
placing a round peg is a round hole.
To validate Buhari’s leadership honesty, let’s take
for comparison, his peers in the leadership circle.
For example, it is an indisputable fact that former
president OlusegunObasanjo is stupendously
wealthy, Gen. Ibrahim Babaginda is stupendously
wealthy, Gen. T. Y. Danjuma is stupendously
wealthy, Gen. Abdusalami Abubakar is
stupendously wealthy, Alh. Atiku Abubakar is
stupendously wealthy, Gen. Aliyu Gusau is
stupendously wealthy, Gen. Sani Abacha died
stupendously wealthy, Gen.
ShehuYar’adua died stupendously wealthy, to
mention but a few of his peers.
But Gen. Buhari is nationally acknowledged to be a
poor man, relative to these men. All those
abovementioned made their stupendous wealth by
leveraging on public offices (i.e. trading on official
influence) for a fee and investing the proceeds,
thereby guaranteeing them a control and command
of a particular sector of the National economy and
living a stupendously wealthy life thereafter. Unlike
MKO Abiola who never was a public servant, none
of the above wealthy men made their money
outside public service.
Also, unlike Sen. Bola Tinubu who joined public
service as a wealthy private sector man, none of
the above listed wealthy men went into public
service wealthy; all of them went into public
service as poor men from very poor backgrounds.
In contrast to them all, Gen. Buhari went into
public service poor and came out relatively poor.
Interestingly, Buhari held more strategic and
lucrative public positions capable of turning him, if
he so desired like others, a stupendously wealthy
or even wealthier man than each and every one of
them. He was governor of Northeastern state for
almost a year; he was Minister of Petroleum and
Chairman of NNPC Board for three and half years;
he was Head of State and Commander -in-Chief for
almost two years; and he was Chairman of
Petroleum Trust Fund, (PTF) for three years. All
these are public offices that could turn a man into
a multi billionaire overnight for life, but Gen. Buhari
went into them and came out of them without
amassing wealth for himself or members of his
immediate family.
This is a clear proof that he had given honest
leadership; a fundamental solution to the current
problem of our country. And, as the universal
dictum goes, honesty is the best policy. As
Nigerians, faced with the dear problem of nation-
building, we will be better off with a little bit of
honesty, in accessing our potential leaders, in
fielding them up in public offices and in them
rendering leadership. But if we fail to do so and
become misguided by our sentiments, emotions or
selfish interests, then we are dooming not only our
generation but the generation yet to come.
My position therefore irrevocably stands on a
Buhari/Tinubu candidacy as the surest presidential
ticket to give APC and Nigerians the desired
victory. Once I get some little money in my pocket
and I hear that APC has started registering
members, I will be off for Imo State, heading to
Owerri-West LGA, and straight to my Ndegwu/
Amakohia-Ubi Ward to register as an APC member
so as to vote for the Buhari/Tinubu presidential
ticket thereby ensuring that this all important joint
ticket of the party materializes.
Bye bye PDP.
Long live APC,
Long Live the Federal Republic of Nigeria