Except Not at All,War in Afghanistan End.

  In January 2014 one of the top U.S. commanders in
Afghanistan offered a grim prediction on the dangers
facing his forces this year.
The Taliban will conduct “ high-profile, spectacular
attacks,” said Lt. Gen. Mark Milley, the commander of
International Seccurity Assistance Force Joint Command,

in an attempt to explain why so many more Afghan
troops were dying as they took on the mantle previously
borne by America and its allies. "I would expect
additional attacks like that. They've been doing it all
summer.”
His insights proved remarkably prescient now that the
war in Afghanistan is technically over, though it certainly
doesn’t feel that way.
ISAF in Afghanistan formally ended “Operation Enduring
Freedom” this week, to begin “Operation Freedom’s
Sentinel” for what the U.S. considers a new mission
there.
Roughly 9,800 U.S. soldiers and 3,000 allied troops
remain in the country, home to America’s longest war
after almost 14 years of conflict.
However, insurgent suicide bombers continue to conduct
devastating attacks, including within the supposed
relative safe haven of Kabul, the capital. New leader
President Ashraf Ghani has still not been able to
navigate his power sharing agreement with rival turned
second-in-command Abdullah Abdullah and fully fill his
cabinet. Corruption is at an all-time high. Local leaders
fear the creeping influence of the Islamic State group.
And the Taliban, with which the Afghan government and
U.S. partners may have to negotiate in coming years,
declared this week the American-led coalition had failed
in its endeavors, earning it victory over the foreign
invaders.
[ READ: 13-Year Afghan War Reaches "Responsible
Conclusion" ]
The White House, however, remains optimistic.
“For more than 13 years, ever since nearly 3,000
innocent lives were taken from us on 9/11, our nation
has been at war in Afghanistan,” President Barack
Obama said in an address on Sunday. “Now, thanks to
the extraordinary sacrifices of our men and women in
uniform, our combat mission in Afghanistan is ending,
and the longest war in American history is coming to a
responsible conclusion.”
He went on to thank the U.S. military forces and
intelligence personnel who have “been relentless against
the terrorists responsible for 9/11” and the subsequent
decimation of top al-Qaida leaders, including Osama bin
Laden.
“We are safer, and our nation is more secure, because of
their service. At the same time, our courageous military
and diplomatic personnel in Afghanistan--along with our
NATO allies and coalition partners--have helped the
Afghan people reclaim their communities, take the lead
for their own security, hold historic elections and
complete the first democratic transfer of power in their
country's history,” Obama said.
He did not mention his announcement earlier in
December that he would stray from his initial plan to
withdraw all combat forces from Afghanistan by the end
of this year. Obama’s fourth-quarter audible will give his
top military officials on the ground there the option to
deploy U.S. forces on missions if absolutely necessary.
The previous bottom line number of 9,800 may increase
by as many as 1,000 if commanders need the support.
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Ahead of Anti-ISIS Offensive ]
It’s remains unclear whether Obama will follow through
on his target of roughly 4,500 troops by the end of 2015,
down to zero the following year just before he leaves the
White House.
But it certainly demonstrates the realities of modern
warfare that are influencing the White House, whether in
the form of growing advice among current and former
combat commanders that the U.S. needs more time and
manpower to support the fragile Afghan fighting force. Or
perhaps Obama saw the situation in nearby Iraq, from
which the U.S, withdrew all forces in 2011, only to
watch from afar as the local government centralized
power along ethnic lines and cleared a path for the
Islamic State group to march on Baghdad earlier this
year.
Dangers in and around Kabul have been exacerbated by
a spike in Taliban attacks, a rare occurrence outside of
the usual fighting season in the warmer months when
fighters leave the shelter of their homes.
The Pentagon’s top spokesman recently disregarded this
fact as merely incidental amid the fanfare of the U.S.
withdrawal.
“We would not consider what they’re doing a
resurgence,” said Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby at a
briefing on Dec. 2. Such spikes in attacks are not
atypical around major events, such as elections, he
said.
His counterparts in the Afghan Taliban offer a different
perspective.
"ISAF rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and
disappointment without having achieved anything
substantial or tangible," said Taliban spokesman
Zabihullah Mujahid in an emailed statement on Monday,
reports Reuters. He promised the hardline extremist
group that first came to power in the 1990s would
overthrow the U.S.-backed government, adding, “the
demoralized American-built forces will constantly be
dealt defeats just like their masters."
The Afghan army will have to “be more than tactics,”
ISAF’s Milley said in January, saying its soldiers needed
the critical skills the U.S. still has to provide for them,
such as logistics, intelligence and medical support. If the
Taliban follows through on their plans, that may be the
least of their problems.